| Subject : e-books within four years 2004-11-01 A report from Afaics concludes that e-books will be so well established within four years that a typical price for mobile hardware will be less than $35. Guy Kewney often writes about mobile phones and apparently was pulled in to the project 'against my better judgement'. He worries about the reputation of e-books as toys or fads. 'Everyone knows they will never replace paper'. He seems to have been persuaded by Nick Hampshire who has been working on e-books for a while now. Earlier this year a site started for an 'e-book society' concentrating on design for e-books as a distinct form of publishing. The new factor is the development of new e-book hardware in Japan and a policy in China to support digital publishing in future. 'I think a lot of publishers may be caught with out-of-date plans for using wood-pulp.' There is a short version of the report at www.afaics.com. There is a free e-book on e-book design at www.the-ebook-publisher.com. You can also join the society for free and pay $15 for the book if you choose. Guy Kewney also reports on mobile devices at www.guykewney.com. If the report is right there will be more here on mobile devices as books within the next four years. Guy Kewney has been writing in UK computer magazines since the mid '70s. He is usually wary of hype so this claim for change in reading habits can be taken as based on genuine study. Meanwhile there is some debate in print media as to how urgent a challenge is posed by the internet. Emily Bell recently wrote in The Guardian about 'denial' as a common condition for much of the UK media.'Imagine there's no internet, it's easy if you try'. The trouble is that this comment could apply to much of the writing in the Guardian and Observer, especially when considering declining print circulations. ABC UK, the Audit Bureau of Circulation, announced in a press release earlier this year ( see previous story 'Web Influence on Print Media Growing' ) that numbers for digital editions can be included on statements for print circulation. However after three possible months so far it appears that no newspaper has 'opted in'. So there are no figures. A reasonable assumption is that UK newspapers already have a mix of income and costs on web and print. The FT may have a UK paid circulation of not much more than 100,000 according to the Guardian. So a paid web circualtion of 75,000 is significant. An ABC condition for the 'digital edition' is that all the content is included, photographs and illustration. In the case of the Guardian this means a choice of html or a PDF that can be saved. The Afaics report from Guy Kewney and Nick Hampshire predicts that XML will replace PDF as a standard format for publishing as this will make possible a wider range of interaction and links to multimedia. They are considering a much wider extension to publishing than the current scope for 'digital editions'. It will be interesting when ABC actually publish some figures but this will only be the start of a time when web and print publishing are considered together. The October Revolution magazine reported that the Sun is considering cutting back web content as they think the site loses the print version 90,000 readers a day. For some other titles, going back in time is not an option. It is a sign of how perceptions might change that Revolution is published by Haymarket from the same offices as Printweek. Printweek recently objected to a Guardian article on how the UK printing industry was on trend to disappear. A report from the City of London included statistics on trends within the City and fringes. Newspapers are no longer printed in central London. News International recently announced investment plans throughout the UK. The Guardian article pointed out the trends in digital printing and the skills required for this to remain as part of the exisiting industry. Digital Print World was held at Olympia last week. It was on a larger scale than last year but no longer included stands from Microsoft or Adobe. In an Adobe webcast for financial analysts on Tuesday it was explained that sales of Postscript are expected to be flat or declining. It seems that Adobe may no longer think the print industry worth much marketing investment. Their concentration is on server software to support PDF in organisations. Emily Bell is right to use the word 'denial' about attitudes to the internet. How long can this go on? Accurate numbers from ABC would help to understand how UK newspapers are situated. Meanwhile the web continues anyway. Maybe there will have to be better numbers from the web before the newspapers fully adjust. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- This could be updated. Main problem is that Afaics are late with their next report. This will look at magazines published as 'digital editions'. Should have been out in January. Maybe they will offer a free download of a short version as they did previously. This would be a suitable lead bit of news to start off another version of this. |
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